| Not So Benign Neglect
At $213bn, y-t-d Home Equity ABS sales are 51% off last year's pace. Year-to-date US CDO issuance of $274 billion is running 2% below 2006 sales. Fed Foreign Holdings of Treasury, Agency Debt last week (ended 10/10) increased $5.5bn, surpassing $2.0 TN for the first time. "Custody holdings" were up $252bn y-t-d (18.2% annualized) and $317bn during the past year, or 18.8%. Federal Reserve Credit last week declined $3.3bn to $858.3bn. Fed Credit has increased $6.1bn y-t-d and $27.2bn over the past year (3.3%). International reserve assets (excluding gold) - as accumulated by Bloomberg's Alex Tanzi - were up $1.050 TN y-t-d (28% annualized) and $1.189 TN year-over-year (25.4%) to a record $5.861 TN. Credit Market Dislocation Watch: October 10 - Financial Times (Saskia Scholtes): "Banks and investors are still struggling to value mortgage securities backed by subprime home loans more than four months after valuation disputes came to light...
The darker side of interest rate cuts
The move had the effect of reducing rates on mortgages and home equity loans, and reassured investors that the Fed will do what it can to spur economic activity as long as the threat of recession looms. But as much as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke might like to keep the economy rolling by slashing interest rates, it's not clear how much room he'll have to do so. Two factors complicate the outlook for further interest-rate cuts: the hefty losses in the financial sector that are making banks less eager to lend money, and the prospect that lower rates will chase overseas investors away from the dollar, lowering the value of the greenback and boosting inflation. Adding to the case against deep rate cuts is the widespread perception that it was the Fed's rate-cutting zealousness after the last recession that led to the housing bubble that now threatens to derail the economy.
ALL BUSINESS: Banks face more woes from rising delinquencies on second ...
Contrarian investors who think now is the time to start buying beaten-down banking stocks could be in for a shock if they don't carefully review those companies' distressed home-equity loan portfolios. Massive losses tied to subprime-mortgage investments knocked down bank earnings over the last year, spurring investors to flee those stocks. But that could be only the start: Rising delinquencies in home-equity loans and other second mortgages could keep the banks' results from improving anytime soon. In recent days, executives at Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. said missed loan payments were a factor in their quarterly earnings declines. Most said the problem would only get worse. Why? A so-far small, but growing, number of homeowners who used their homes like an ATM to fund their spending and investment bets are finding themselves in a financial pinch.
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