| How Obama Can Win
Here's how the Bradley Effect works: A stranger calls you to ask how you intend to vote. You do NOT intend to vote for the African American, but you don't want to get a lot of guff from this stranger about how you must be a racist if you won't vote for the African American. So you answer, "Not sure." In all the classic Bradley Effect elections (and NH fit the pattern), the polls got the vote for the African American about right, but OVERREPORTED not sure and UNDERREPORTED the other candidate's vote. So when the brand new MSNBC-McClatchy-Mason Dixon poll in SC says there are twice as many undecided in the Dem race (15%) than in the GOP race (8%), you might suspect Bradley-ism in that poll. So what looks like a 9-point Obama lead with a fat undecided might in fact portend a very close race, no? [E.A.] 4:49 P.M.
Words from the Wise for the Week That Was (Jan 14 - 20, 2008)
There are going to be more losses in the biggest banks, and even bigger investments by Sovereign Wealth Funds. Count on it." Source: John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline, January 18, 2008. The Wall Street Journal: Citi makes an enticing offer
"Away from the headlines, Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit quietly offered the great American public a deal this morning. Lend the bank some money, he said, and we'll pay you a fat 7% interest rate. The payouts will get the same favorable tax treatment as shareholders' dividends, but will be secure against pretty much anything except a full business meltdown. Oh, and if Citigroup's fortunes recover you'll get to share in the upside along with ordinary shareholders. That's quite an offer. "The bank is set to issue $2 billion worth of so-called convertible preferred stock to the public.
Bush Speech to Have Few New Ideas
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